CAA as a Stand Alone Act

A primary pro-CAA argument has been to consider it as a stand alone Act and NOT couple it with NRC. So let's look at CAA and understand the changes brought in. Post that let's look at the feasibility and implement-ability of CAA as a stand alone Act

2 main changes in Citizenship Act based on CAA

• Definition of an illegal migrant - The parent act defined an illegal migrant as
1. A foreigner who enter India without a valid passport or any travel documents
2. A foreigner with passport and travel documents who overstays his allowed period of stay

The Amendment added an exception....

1. A foreigner who enter India without a valid passport or any travel documents
2. A foreigner with passport and travel documents who overstays his allowed period of stay
3. Provided that any person belonging to Hindu, Sikh, Buddhist, Jain, Parsi or Christian community from Afghanistan, Bangladesh or Pakistan, who entered into India on or before the 31st day of December, 2014 shall not be treated as illegal migrant

• Citizenship by Naturalisation.- As per the Original Act,
• This is applicable ONLY to Foreign Nationals
• This is NOT applicable to illegal migrants
• Eligibility - He/she has either resided in India throughout the period of 12 months immediately preceding the date of the application. During the fourteen years immediately preceding the said period of twelve months, he/ she has resided in India for periods amounting in the aggregate to not less than 11 years.
• Documents Needed - Copy of Valid Foreign Passport AND Copy of Indian Residential Permit/ Long term Visa

The Amendment made the option of Naturalisation (Certificate of Registration or Certificate of naturalisation) available to any person with or without travel documents belonging to Hindu, Sikh, Buddhist, Jain, Parsi or Christian community from Afghanistan, Bangladesh or Pakistan, who entered into India on or before the 31st day of December, 2014

• Eligibility for Certificate - He/she has either resided in India throughout the period of 12 months immediately preceding the date of the application. During the fourteen years immediately preceding the said period of twelve months, he/ she has resided in India for periods amounting in the aggregate to not less than 5 years
• Documents Needed - ?????????????? As per the amendment, the government has the power to make rules regarding the conditions, restrictions and manner for granting certificate of registration or certificate of naturalisation for these people

Once he/she gets the Certificate of Registration/ Naturalisation, the amendment enables them to be deemed as a citizen of India from his/her date of entry if he/she fulfills any of conditions mentioned in Image 1 OR all the conditions mentioned in the Image 2. For the following conditions, person is of Indian origin if he or either of his parents are born in undivided India after 15th August, 1947
The person who makes the application for citizenship under this section shall not be deprived of his rights and privileges to which he was entitled on the date of receipt of his application on the ground of making such application

Image 1 - Section 5 of Original Act - Any of the conditions to be met

Image 2 - Third Schedule of the original Act - All the conditions to be met. 11 years reduced to 5 years

Implications of the above changes

There is an already existing naturalisation process for foreign nationals staying in India for long time. The existing Naturalisation application process already had exceptions for certain countries as shown below. But the applicants have to upload atleast Visa (valid or invalid) to prove foreign nationality. 

So the CAA Amendment naturalisaton is about people with NO valid passport or travel documents whatsoever, who have lived in India for at-least 5 years. If it is going to be an application based process (like the normal naturalization), who will apply for this voluntarily?, what kind of supporting documents shall the government demand from the applicants? Or rather is it possible in anyways to implement this provision in an application based format given that these people will have no documents whatsoever to prove their parent countries. The devil lies in this detail...... Without an NRC looming, there is no way CAA can be implemented as a stand alone Act inviting application from people. Out of our 1.37 billion population, around 900 million are adults and around 900 million has voters ID. There is no reason for an individual  possessing ANY Indian document to voluntarily apply for this provision with no proofs to support.

List of Documents currently needed for naturalisation of foreign nationals with travel documents

Already existing exceptions for certain nations in documents needed for naturalisation

CAA Amendment - http://egazette.nic.in/WriteReadData/2019/214646.pdf

Original Citizenship Act - https://indiacode.nic.in/bitstream/123456789/4210/1/Citizenship_Act_1955.pdf

Online application forms for citizenship - https://indiancitizenshiponline.nic.in/Home2.aspx?formcode=08

A few lives that has changed post NRC.....

Explanations and Hypothetical situations have failed to prove the point... So here is a list of a few lives that has changed post NRC. Sources are given below as links.. The list is collated just based on newspaper reports. This is not an exhaustive list; If 3 hours of Google search could create a list of 50, then similar cases on the ground will be in thousands. Its for you to judge whether these people are 'genuine' citizens of India or 'Intruders'.

1. Abida Sidiqa (34) from Achalpara. Her brother and 4 sisters are in the list, but she is out of the list
2. Amrit Lal Das of Bongaigaon town in lower Assam – Himself and his 4 brothers excluded
3. Kamala Das – 70 year old Bengali Hindu whose son is included but she is not
4. 60-year-old Malati Bala Das from Assam’s Katirail village - has supporting documents, including her father’s refugee certificate of 1964, to prove her Indian identity. She has voted regularly since 1997. But still tagged as D Voter
5. Bhakta Das (60) was served a notice in 2009 but in 2011 he was declared an Indian citizen by a tribunal court. Interestingly, he was served a D-Voter notice in 2017 again
6. Indigenous Gorkha community members - one lakh Gorkhas have been left out of final NRC.A BJP MP told Lok Sabha on Friday that many members of the Gorkha community have been excluded from the National Register of Citizens (NRC) in Assam and asked the government to give them recognition as the state’s inhabitants. Four organisations representing the Gorkha community in Assam came together on Friday to stage a protest and submit a memorandum to Chief Minister Sarbananda Sonowal regarding the exclusion of members of the community from the National Register of Citizens (NRC).
7. Abdus Subhan, a former Grade IV employee in the state education department in Mohimari village of Assam - his sons Zubair Hussain (28), Ariful (25) and Yesmin (22) were out of NRC. But his 2 elder kids Fazail (35) and Salma (30) were in. “Our grandfather’s name is in the 1951 NRC. We don’t know why the exclusion happened. If my parents and elder siblings are Indians, how can I be a foreigner?,” says Zubair
8. Ahmed Toweb (28), a resident of Jogighopa in Bongaigaon - Only member of his family to be excluded. His parents and five other siblings are in. Toweb is a secretary of the state committee of NSUI, the Congress’s students’ wing.
9. Rina Bhattacharjee (71) - retired teacher in Tezpur who is excluded. Her husband is in. Rina did her schooling in West Bengal and returned to Assam to pursue higher education. She then took up a job here, she had submitted a 1967 certificate from a school in Nagaon she started teaching at and her BEd certificate from 1969
10. Jaba Namashudro (35), a resident of Udharbond in Cachar district – Out of NRC whereas her three children and husband are in. She had won a case at a Foreigners’ Tribunal in 2017 and was declared an Indian. But now she is out of NRC
11. Ananta Kumar Malo, the All India United Democratic Front (AIUDF) MLA from the Scheduled Caste-reserved constituency of Abhyapuri South in lower Assam – OUT of final NRC. Everyone else in his family is in.
12. Rama Kanta Dewri, the BJP MLA from Morigaon constituency, did not confirm or deny reports that he has been excluded - he belongs to an indigenous tribal community of the state.
13. 4 family members of Fakhruddin Ali Ahmed who was the fifth President of India excluded from final NRC
14. Nur Alam (14), a Class 8 student – Excluded from the final NRC, all other family members in
15. Khatemon Nessa (50) and Rejia Khatun (45) – Sisters of Akram Hussain who runs a pharmacy. Out of 8 siblings, these 2 are left out. They are illiterate and did not have the school and matriculation certificates others had. So there was a problem in establishing linkage with our father, whose 1966 voters’ list we used
16. Shahibul Hoque Sikdar, a history lecturer at a college in Mazgaon of Barpeta district - All his family members, including parents and two children, are in the final NRC except him
17. Tajuddin Ahmed (34), a teacher at a private school in village Kirakara in Darrang district - only one among eight brothers not to make it into final NRC
18. Jelemon Nessa (around 50) - only one in their family out of the NRC. There is a mismatch in her father’s name in the documents used for her NRC application — one says Moghrob Ali, the other Mogor Ali.
19. Sisters Dipa and Kalpana Das, in their 50s -- while Dipa was on the list, Kalpana was not
20. Mohendra Das, a daily wager – out of final NRC. appeared at the NSK without a shirt but holding a yellow plastic bag full of documents
21. Bushan Das, a resident of Udayan Nagar colony on the outskirts of southern Assam’s Silchar – Out of NRC, his 3 sons and 3 daughters also excluded. His wife is included. Apart from his driving licence, Das said he had submitted other papers, including a fraying citizenship certificate from 1956, to support his linkage to his father and grandfather, both of whom grew up in Silchar
22. Iman Ali (62) – Only 7 out of the 52 members of his joint family included in final NRC. the problem was in his father’s name. “He was actually Joyanuddin Sheikh. But in the 1966 voters’ list that we submitted for NRC, it is spelt as Joranuddin Sheikh. We were all included earlier ; only four of the 52 of us were excluded from the draft NRC,” he said. “But then there was an ‘objection’ filed against me, my two cousins and one uncle, We went for the hearing regarding the objection. The objector did not come and we don’t personally know the person who filed it. During the hearing we were asked the reason for the difference between ‘Joyanuddin’ and ‘Joranuddin’ in the documents. We realised the problem and said we have a land document of 1964 which mentions our grandfather’s name as ‘Joyanuddin’, the actual name. But they disallowed that”
23. Sanaullah, 52, (30 years in Army) retired as a subedar with the Army Corps of Electronics and Mechanical Engineers (EME) in August 2017 after serving in insurgency-affected areas of Jammu & Kashmir and the North-East – Left out of NRC along with his 3 children. Sent to detention center. Wife included in NRC
24. Shankar Rai, 43 - belongs to the Koch Rajbongshi community, one of the oldest inhabitants in the region. a spelling error on his Pan Card excluded him from the draft NRC
25. Sati Purkayashta, 73 - worked as a teacher in a local school in Guwahati. Her father died when she was six, her husband when she was 46. her name was out of the NRC draft. All her family members, including her newborn granddaughter, had made it
26. Nayanmoni Das (14) with her father Sanjit (37) and sister Tina (9) – Excluded from final NRC because her long-dead grandfather Prasanna Das is still marked as a Doubtful Voter (D-Voter) in the state’s electoral rolls. According to updation rules, a person declared foreigner by a Foreigners Tribunal (DF), a person marked Doubtful Voter (DV) by the local election officials or a person whose case is pending at an FT (PFT) and their descendants who have drawn ‘legacy’ from such persons will be excluded from NRC. Tina was excluded in the draft NRC published July last, the family said. While Sanjit, Monojit and Nayamoni made it then, their names were dropped in the additional exclusion list published on June 26. The reason said, “descendant of D-Voter”
27. Ratish Das (45) - He, his wife Kalpana and youngest child, Rajib (14) are out of the draft NRC while their two elder children Robindro (23) and Poornima (18) were included
28. The entire family of Arshad Ali (36), a driver in Barpeta, was included in draft NRC except for his daughter Amana Khatoon (11). “Her birth certificate was not accepted, I think. It is from Delhi. From 2006 to 2009, I was in Delhi. I fear about her fate if she is out of the NRC. During ‘claim’ hearing, they [officials] asked me for more documents — I said what more documents can a child have.”
29. Kesab Roy, a Koch Rajbongshis (indigenous community), has his mother left out of the NRC, while the names of her only sister and the brothers figure on it
30. Karnadhar Singha, a Koch Rajbongshis (indigenous community), wife and mother out of NRC
31. Motiurrahman – All family included except daughter-in-law
32. Somaira (7) – Out of NRC. Her father, mother included
33. Zarina Khatun – Excluded of NRC. All her siblings who used the same legacy data is in the list.
34. Rahima Khatun – Out of NRC, her 2 brothers in draft NRC
35. Gita Rani (61) – Excluded from NRC. Her sons and other family members included. Failed to produce any document to prove that her birth year is 1958 and her admission to Charilam school in 1970. Sent to detention camp. Headmaster of Tripura school flown down to support her case and provided all school documents. A few days later her name was removed from detention center list
36. Kanai Lal Chouhan (42) – Out of NRC along with 3 daughters, 1 son and 2 sisters. Farmer from Udalguri district. Mother and wife included in NRC
37. Madan Chandra Das’s family – 6 out of 9 membered family made it to NRC. Madan along with his 2 sisters out. 2 brothers in though
38. Illias Ali – Congress Legislator from Dalgaon Assembly – Made it to NRC , but her daughter is out.
39. Taffajul Ali – Was included in draft NRC but excluded of final NRC. Had land and house documents. But last year floods washed away his land and his house. Someone filed an objection against him that led to exclusion from final list
40. Mofizur Rehman – a health officer with the Meghalaya govt. His full family excluded from NRC. Spelling error in his father’s name in govt records. His father was a school teacher. His Uncle’s family is included
41. Sarbari Bhattacharjee (54) from New Bongaigaon – excluded from NRC. Born in WB but doesn’t have birth certificate with her. Her husband and daughter included
42. Krishna Chanda (80) – a retired school teacher – Excluded from final NRC. Born in Kolkata and her graduation certificate has her maiden name Krishna Gosh. The fact that she married and her surname changed to Chanda was not considered. She draws pension from Assam govt where her date of joining service is 1963
43. Azharuddin – delivery assistant with Swiggy in Guwahati – 6 out of 14 members of his family out of NRC. Submitted land records of 1962
44. Parimal Bhattacharjee (52) – works in Tanzania. Out of final NRC. Born in Arunachal Pradesh. His parents separated in 1971 and he doesn’t have any docs pre 1971. His wife and son is in NRC
45. Akbar Ali (58) Tea seller – He and his wife excluded of NRC. His 4 sons and 4 daughters are in
46. Mirchan Nessa (46) - Herself and her 9 year old grand-daughter Samina Akhtar left out of final NRC eventhough they were included in draft NRC
47. Former legislator Ataur Rahman Mazarbhuiya – Excluded from final NRC along with his daughter and son. His entire family had figured in the first NRC draft published on December 31, 2018. But four members, including Mr. Mazarbhuiya – he had used his own legacy data – were put in the exclusion list published on July 30, 2018.
48. Brigadier K.P. Lahiri, received the Veer Chakra for his exploits in the 1965 war and played a key role during the Bangladesh Liberation War of 1971 – wife excluded from final List
49. Some of Radha Krishna Saraswati’s family, the first exporter of Assam silk a century ago, are also excluded. Runa Saraswati (68) survived the Jalpaiguri flood to be married into one of Guwahati’s oldest Bengali families. the Saraswatis became the first to export Assam’s indigenous silks. Their documents dating back to more than a century made them confident of being included in the NRC. All members were in, except for Ms. Saraswati.
50. The 65-year-old Madhabi* Bose, married into a middle-class family in Guwahati’s Kalapahar area, too has been left out for a similar reason. She is from Cooch Behar, from where many documents of people born before 1972, the year the DM’s office caught fire, could not be verified

https://indianexpress.com/article/india/new-nrc-how-many-times-do-we-prove-citizenship-6142063/

https://indianexpress.com/article/north-east-india/assam/assam-nrc-persons-get-multiple-d-voter-notices-6070260/

https://indianexpress.com/article/north-east-india/assam/assam-gorkha-groups-protest-against-nrc-exclusions-6035597/

https://indianexpress.com/article/cities/kolkata/gjm-delegation-to-visit-assam-nrc-a-total-fiasco-shocked-to-see-one-lakh-gorkha-people-left-out-says-mamata-5957402/

https://indianexpress.com/article/india/bjp-mp-seeks-inclusion-of-gorkhas-left-out-of-nrc-6143062/

https://indianexpress.com/article/north-east-india/assam/out-of-nrc-retired-teacher-nsui-leader-staff-at-nrc-seva-kendra-5960220/

https://indianexpress.com/article/north-east-india/assam-nrc-mlas-faulty-genuine-citizens-out-5957268/

https://indianexpress.com/article/india/nrc-final-list-released-family-members-of-former-president-fakhruddin-ali-ahmed-again-left-out-5956636/

https://indianexpress.com/article/north-east-india/assam/assams-nrc-final-list-released-questions-despair-and-a-man-with-a-bag-of-papers-5955137/

https://indianexpress.com/article/north-east-india/assam/final-assam-nrc-40-years-of-hanging-on-to-a-driving-licence-now-this-5955033/

https://indianexpress.com/article/north-east-india/assam/in-family-of-52-four-out-of-draft-assam-nrc-45-out-now-5955099/

https://indianexpress.com/article/north-east-india/assam/ex-army-man-declared-illegal-when-i-entered-jail-i-cried-and-cried-had-defended-my-country-at-the-border-5774290/

https://indianexpress.com/article/india/assam-nrc-final-list-retired-army-officer-mohammad-sanaullah-children-wife-5953710/

https://indianexpress.com/article/north-east-india/assam/assam-national-register-of-citizens-nrc-final-draft-missing-names-stories-5950321/

https://indianexpress.com/article/north-east-india/assam/assam-nrc-countdown-families-face-split-as-d-day-nears-5946168/

https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/city/guwahati/koch-rajbongshis-protest-against-exclusion-from-nrc/articleshow/71163197.cms

https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/india/parents-in-nrc-7-yr-old-bears-bangladeshi-taunt/articleshow/70940795.cms

https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/india/off-the-list-villagers-in-mad-dash-rue-wasted-sacrifice/articleshow/70941109.cms

https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/city/guwahati/guwahati-with-48-hours-left-families-still-being-called-in-for-hearings/articleshow/70903611.cms

https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/city/guwahati/headmaster-spends-earned-leave-to-free-nrc-hit-woman-in-assam/articleshow/72065367.cms

https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/city/guwahati/assam-nrc-15000-bhojpuri-speaking-people-failed-test/articleshow/71020020.cms

https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/city/guwahati/aiudf-mla-not-in-nrc-daughter-makes-the-cut/articleshow/70933077.cms

https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/city/guwahati/landless-and-now-stateless-the-curious-case-of-taffajul/articleshow/70954259.cms

https://www.thehindu.com/todays-paper/tp-national/stateless-at-the-stroke-of-a-pen/article29312123.ece

https://www.thehindu.com/news/national/other-states/want-to-die-as-an-indian-says-nrc-excluded/article29317912.ece

https://www.thehindu.com/todays-paper/tp-national/sanaullah-out-of-the-list-aiudf-mla-left-in-the-cold/article29312115.ece

https://www.thehindu.com/todays-paper/disasters-keep-some-women-out-of-nrc/article29327332.ece

The 'variance and standard deviation' in News!!

Yesterday was an eye opener for me on what we call as 'news and media reports'. Yesterday was significant in many other different ways too; but am not getting into the same. Yesterday was 26 Feb, 2019.

There was a major national event that happened and the whole nation was tracking the same carefully. But what was presented to us as 'news' was really shocking. Wikipedia says 'News is information about current events'. It says nothing about whether the information has to be right or not. So can false information be also called 'news'? Oh, i forgot-- That is fake news! Then what about unverified, unsupported, proof-less information? It's neither news nor fake news. That is the grey area where majority of Indian media was treading yesterday. The narrative changes based on which channel/ newspaper you are tuned in. This is not generally abnormal as slight variations in reports do happen across different platforms. But the variance would be minimal and mostly insignificant. But yesterday's 'news' showed the highest amount of variance (in pure statistical terms) that i have ever seen in recent times. One incident; One fact; Many versions...................

•  BBC - Indian govt said strikes targeted a training camp of the Jaish-e-Mohammad (JeM) group in Balakot. Pakistan said its jets had forced back the Indian planes and denied there were any casualties. What does India say happened? ------- How has Pakistan responded?------

• Reuters - India said its warplanes killed “a very large number” of fighters when they struck a militant training camp inside Pakistan on Tuesday, raising the risk of conflict between the nuclear-armed neighbours, although Pakistan officials denied there had been casualties.A senior Indian government source said that 300 militants had been killed in the strikes and that the warplanes had ventured as far as 80 km (50 miles) inside Pakistan. But no evidence was provided to back up the claims of casualties.Pakistani officials dismissed the Indian claims, saying the Indian aircraft had dropped their bombs in a wooded area, causing no damage or casualties.Villagers near the town of Balakot were shaken from their sleep by the air strikes. They said only one person was wounded in the attack and they knew of no fatalities.From what villagers could see, the Indian attack had missed its target as the bombs dropped exploded about a kilometre away from the madrasa. “We saw fallen trees and one damaged house, and four craters where the bombs had fallen,” said Mohammad Ajmal, a 25-year-old who visited the site.“We couldn’t tell what had happened. It was only in the morning that we figured out it was an attack,” he told Reuters after visiting the site, in a wooded hilltop area.

• Aljazeera - Indian fighter jets on Tuesday crossed into Pakistani territory, conducting what the foreign ministry in New Delhi termed a "non-military pre-emptive action" against armed group Jaish-e-Mohammed (JeM), dramatically escalating tensions between the nuclear-armed neighbours weeks after a suicide attack in the disputed Kashmir region. Pakistan reported the Indian airspace incursion, with military spokesman Major General Asif Ghafoor saying its air force jets were scrambling to respond, forcing the Indian aircraft to "release [their] payload in haste while escaping".Indian Foreign Secretary Vijay Gokhale, however, asserted that the jets had hit their target, and that "a very large number of JeM terrorists, trainers, senior commanders and groups of jihadis who were being trained for fidayeen action were eliminated".Local residents and journalists in Pakistan told Al Jazeera that the sounds of aircraft and an explosion were heard in the Jaba area of Mansehra district, located about 60km from the LoC

• NewYork Times -  Indian warplanes conducted airstrikes in Pakistan on Tuesday, Pakistani officials said, in an escalation of tensions between the nuclear-armed nations after a suicide bombing against Indian troops in the disputed Kashmir region this month.It was the first time that Indian aircraft had crossed the Kashmir Line of Control to strike in decades. But it was unclear what, if anything, the attack jets hit on the Pakistani side, raising the possibility that India was making a calculated bet to assuage public anger but minimize the risk of a major Pakistani military response.The Indian Foreign Ministry confirmed in a news briefing that a strike had occurred but would give no further details. 

• The Indian Express - Less than a fortnight after the single bloodiest attack in Jammu and Kashmir in the last three decades of militancy, India on Tuesday conducted air strikes deep inside Pakistan, the first time after the 1971 war that it has hit targets in the country. Announcing that India had struck the “biggest training camp” of the Jaish-e-Mohammad in Balakot in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa in the pre-dawn hours of Tuesday, in which “a very large number” of JeM terrorists and their trainers were “eliminated”, the NDA government, effectively, drew a new red line in its strategic calculus with Pakistan. By striking terrorist camps about 80 km away from the Line of Control in Pakistan’s Khyber Pakhtunkhwa province, India chose “non-military” targets, the Jaish-e-Mohammed-run terror camps, and justified the strikes as “pre-emptive” since terrorists, Delhi said, were plotting another attack

• The Hindu - Twelve days after the Pulwama attack, the Indian Air Force bombed the Jaish-e-Mohammad’s “biggest” terror-training camp in Pakistan’s Balakot early on Tuesday. The operation was carried out by 12 Mirage-2000 fighter jets, which unleashed five one-tonne bombs on the camp, based 70 km inside the Line of Control (LoC), in the Pakistani province of Khyber Pakthunkhwa. Senior officials citing intelligence inputs said the JeM facility was particularly crowded with 200-325 militants as many had abandoned launch pads and training camps closer to the LoC after the Pulwama attack in the expectation that India would not target Balakot. Defence officials said the Mirage fighters took off from the Gwalior airbase at approximately 3 a.m., backed by aircraft from other bases, including Sirsa, Bathinda and Agra. Announcing the strikes, the government said it was a “non-military, pre-emptive” counter-terror operation against imminent threats from the JeM.

• India Today - Indian Air Force Mirage 2000 jets crossed the Line of Control and then went into Pakistan to destroy terrorist training camps of Jaish-e-Mohammed led by Masood Azhar. A large training camp was flattened in Balakot in Pakistan's Khyber Pakhtunkhwa province. 12 Mirage 2000 jets took part in the operation. They dropped 1,000-kg laser-guided bombs to destroy at least six terrorist terror camps inside Pakistan-occupied Kashmir and Balakot. The aircraft crossed over at 3 am even as Pakistani armed forces were on high alert. The Indian formation managed to avoid detection. When Pakistan Air Force noticed the bombarding, it scrambled its jets but the formation was not easy to tackle for them. By the time, more aircraft took off from Abbottabad, the operation was over and Indian jets had safely returned home. The Balakot bombing took just about 90 seconds and the entire operation was over in 21 minutes. Government sources estimate the number of terrorists killed to be between 200 and 300. Yousuf Azhar, one of the hijackers of IC-814, may be one of those killed. Yousuf, is a brother-in-law of Jaish-e-Mohammed chief Masood Azhar, who was released after IC-814 hijacking and went on the form the terrorist group. India said this was not a revenge attack but a pre-emptive strike led by intelligence inputs and was 'non-military' in nature. A non-military preemptive strike technically means the operation targeted no military installation.Pakistan pre-empted India's announcement by claiming Pakistan Air Force had chased away Indian Air Force intruders who then unloaded their payload in haste, damaging some trees. Pakistan media also denied any such strike and said that only person suffered minor injuries in Balakot

• ANI News - Sending out a huge message, India on Tuesday carried out air strikes deep inside Pakistan, destroying major camp of JeM and eliminating a "large number" of terrorists, including top commanders, of the terror group. In the swift operation, launched around 3.30am and completed within 12 minutes, 12 mirage-2000 fighter jets pounded the training center, housing around 300 terrorists, in Balakot area of Khyber Pakhtunkhwa province with six bombs while SU-30 combat aircraft maintained air superiority to ward off any retaliation by PAF, sources said. The casuality figure of the terrorists is very high as the JeM had shifted  its entire cadre to this camp from the launching  pads along the LOC, fearing surgical strikes-type response from India in the aftermath of Pulwama attack, sources said about first such action by India.  A large number of Jaish terrorists, including top commanders, trainers and those terrorists who were to be 'fidayeen' were eliminated in the 'non military' air strike, Foreign secretarty Gokhale told the media while officially disclosing information about the air strike, hours after the action. Sources said the camp housed an ammunition dump having more than 200 AK Rifles, uncounted round of hand grenades, explosives, and detonators and it was blown up in the strike. Among the targets were  Maulana Ammar, who is associated with Afghanistan and Kashmir Operations, and Maulana Talfa Saif, brother of  Maulana Masoor Azhar and head  of suicide  bomber preparation wing, the intelligence sources said.

• Republic TV headlines - India has struck Pakistan and we have struck them hard. There were 3 strikes - Balakot, Muzzafarabad and Chakothi . 16 fighter jets were used, 6 terror camps were targeted, over 245 terrorists killed in 17 minutes; figure can go up to 345, terror bombed, burned and buried. Pakistan army says it was too dark and their jets were too fast. (*There were many further details they had given on TV including the photos of the 'eliminated' terrorists)

Main points in Sabarimala SC Verdict

• The instant writ petition preferred under Article 32 of the Constitution seeks issuance of directions against the Government of Kerala, Devaswom Board of Travancore, Chief Thanthri of Sabarimala Temple and the District Magistrate of Pathanamthitta to ensure entry of female devotees between the age group of 10 to 50 years to the Lord Ayyappa Temple at Sabarimala (Kerala) which has been denied to them on the basis of certain custom and usage; to declare Rule 3(b) of the Kerala Hindu Places of Public Worship (Authorisation of Entry) Rules framed in exercise of the powers conferred by Section 4 of the Kerala Hindu Places of Public Worship (Authorisation of Entry) Act, 1965 (for brevity, “the 1965 Act”) as unconstitutional being violative of Articles 14, 15, 25 and 51A(e) of the Constitution of India and further to pass directions for the safety of women pilgrims.
• “Rule 3. The classes of persons mentioned here under shall not be entitled to offer worship in any place of public worship or bath in or use of water of any sacred tank, well, spring or water course appurtenant to a place of public worship whether situate within or outside outside precincts thereof, or any sacred place including a hill or hill lock, or a road, street or pathways which is requisite for obtaining access to place of public worship…. (a)Persons who are not Hindus. (b)Women at such time during which they are not by custom and usage allowed to enter a place of public worship. (c) Persons under pollution arising out of birth or death in their families. (d)Drunken or disorderly persons. (e) Persons suffering from any loathsome or contagious disease. (f) Persons of unsound mind except when taken for worship under proper control and with the permission of the executive authority of the place of public worship concerned. (g) Professional beggars when their entry is solely for the purpose of begging.”
• The following questions for the purpose of reference to the Constitution Bench: 
• 1. Whether the exclusionary practice which is based upon a biological factor exclusive to the female gender amounts to "discrimination" and thereby violates the very core of Articles 14, 15 and 17 and not protected by "morality" as used in Articles 25 and 26 of the Constitution? 
• 2. Whether the practice of excluding such women constitutes an "essential religious practice" under Article 25 and whether a religious institution can assert a claim in that regard under the umbrella of right to manage its own affairs in the matters of religion?
• 3. Whether Ayyappa Temple has a denominational character and, if so, is it permissible on the part of a 'religious denomination' managed by a statutory board and financed under Article 290-A of the Constitution of India out of the Consolidated Fund of Kerala and Tamil Nadu to indulge in such practices violating constitutional principles/ morality embedded in Articles 14, 15(3), 39(a) and 51-A(e)?  
• 4. Whether Rule 3 of the Kerala Hindu Places of Public Worship (Authorisation of Entry) Rules permits 'religious denomination' to ban entry of women between the age of 10 to 50 years? And if so, would it not play foul of Articles 14 and 15(3) of the Constitution by restricting entry of women on the ground of sex? 
• 5. Whether Rule 3(b) of the Kerala Hindu Places of Public Worship (Authorization of Entry) Rules, 1965 is ultra vires the Kerala Hindu Places of Public Worship (Authorisation of Entry) Act, 1965 and , if treated to be intra vires, whether it will be violative of the provisions of Part III of the Constitution?”
• The State of Kerala, the first respondent herein, as indicated earlier, had taken contrary stands at different times. An affidavit was filed on 13.11.2007 which indicated that the Government was not in favour of discrimination towards any woman or any section of the society. The said stand was changed in the affidavit dated 5.2.2016 taking the stand that the earlier affidavit was contrary to the judgment of the Kerala High Court. On 7.11.2016 on a query being made by the Court, the learned counsel for the State submitted that it wanted to place reliance on the original affidavit dated 13.11.2007. It is contended by Mr. Jaideep Gupta, learned senior counsel appearing for the State of Kerala, that the 1965 Act and the Rules framed thereunder are in consonance with Article 25(2)(b) of the Constitution. Reference has been made to Section 3 of the Act, for the said provision deals with places of public worship to be open to Hindus generally or any section or class thereof. The concept of prohibition is not conceived of. It is urged by Mr. Gupta that there is no restriction in view of the legislation in the field. In essence, the stand of the State is that it does not conceive of any discrimination as regards the entry of women into the temple where male devotees can enter
• The respondent no. 4 (the Thanthri of the Temple) has averred that the custom and usage of young women (aged between 10 to 50 years) not being allowed to enter the Sabarimala temple has its traces in the basic tenets of the establishment of the temple, the deification of Lord Ayyappa and His worship. As per the respondent no. 4, Ayyappa had explained the manner in which the Sabarimala pilgrimage was to be undertaken emphasizing the importance of „Vrutham‟ which are special observances that need to be followed in order to achieve spiritual refinement, and that as a part of the "Vruthum", the person going on pilgrimage separates himself from all family ties for 41 days and during the said period either the woman leaves the house or the man resides elsewhere in order to separate himself from all family ties. Thereafter, the respondent no. 4 has pointed out that the problem with women is that they cannot complete the 41 days Vruthum as their periods would eventually fall within the said period and it is a custom among all Hindus that women do not go to temples or participate in religious activities during periods and the same is substantiated by the statement of the basic Thantric text of temple worshipping in Kerala Thantra Samuchayam, Chapter 10, Verse II.The respondent no. 4 has emphasized that the observance of 41 days Vruthum is a condition precedent for the pilgrimage which has been an age old custom and anyone who cannot fulfill the said Vruthum cannot enter the temple and, hence, women who have not attained puberty and those who are in menopause alone can undertake the pilgrimage at Sabarimala. The respondent no. 4 has also averred that the said condition of observance of 41days Vruthum is not applicable to women alone and even men who cannot observe the 41 days Vruthum due to births and deaths in the family, which results in breaking of Vruthum, are also not allowed to take the pilgrimage that year.The respondent no. 4 has also drawn the attention of the Court to the fact that religious customs as well as the traditional science of Ayurveda consider menstrual period as an occasion for rest for women and a period of uncleanliness of the body and during this period, women are affected by several discomforts and, hence, observance of intense spiritual discipline for 41 days is not possible. The respondent no. 4 has also contented that it is for the sake of pilgrims who practise celibacy that young women are not allowed in the Sabarimala pilgrimage.The respondent no. 4 has also averred that for climbing the 18 holy steps, one has to carry the irumudikettu (the sacred package of offerings) and for making the pilgrimage really meaningful, austerities for a period of 41 days have to be observed and, hence, for a meaningful pilgrimage, it is always prudent if women of the forbidden age group hold themselves back.the respondent no. 4 has also placed reliance upon the decision of the Kerala High Court in S. Mahendran (supra) wherein the then Thantri Shri Neelakandaru had deposed as C.W 6 and he stated that the present idol was installed by his paternal uncle Kantaru Shankaru and he confirmed that women of age group 10 to 50 years were not allowed to enter the temple even before 1950s. The respondent no. 4 has also submitted that the deity at Sabarimala in the form of „Naishtik Brahmachari‟ and that is also a reason why young women are not allowed inside the temple so as to prevent even the slightest deviation from celibacy and austerity observed by the deity
• The applicant/intervenor has also submitted that the respondents, by referring to the practice as a custom with aberrations, have themselves suggested that there has been no continuity in the applicability of the said custom and that it has also been established in the evidence before the High Court that women irrespective of their age were permitted to enter the Sabarimala for the first rice feeding ceremony of their children and it is only since the last 60 years after the passing of the Notification in 1955 that women between the age of 10 to 50 years were prohibited from entering the temple. 
• Learned Senior Advocate Mr. Raju Ramchandran, the learned Amicus, submits that the right of a woman to visit and enter a temple as a devotee of the deity and as a believer in Hindu faith is an essential aspect of her right to worship without which her right to worship is significantly denuded. It is also submitted by the learned Amicus that Devaswom Board in its counter affidavit before the Kerala High Court in S. Mahendran (supra), had asserted, as is reflected vide para 7 of the judgment, that there was no such prohibition against women entering the temple and that there was no evidence to suggest any binding religious practice and, likewise, the High Court, in its judgment vide para 34, found the exclusionary practice as just a usage and not a religious custom or essential religious practice.
• Whether followers of Lord Ayyappa constitute a religious denomination? 
• Article 26 of the Constitution of India guarantees to every religious denomination the right (a) to establish and maintain institutions for religious and charitable purposes; (b) to manage its own affairs in matters of religion; (c) to own and acquire movable and immovable property; and (d) to administer such property in accordance with law. However, these rights are subject to public order, morality and health
• "The words 'religious denomination' in Article 26 of the Constitution must take their colour from the word 'religion' and if this be so, the expression 'religious denomination' must also satisfy three conditions: (1) It must be a collection of individuals who have a system of beliefs or doctrines which they regard as conducive to their spiritual well-being, that is, a common faith; (2) common organisation, and (3) designation by a distinctive name."
• As is decipherable form the above decisions of this Court, for any religious mutt, sect, body, sub-sect or any section thereof to be designated as a religious denomination, it must be a collection of individuals having a collective common faith, a common organization which adheres to the said common faith, and last but not the least, the said collection of individuals must be labeled, branded and identified by a distinct name.
• Though, the respondents have urged that the pilgrims coming to visit the Sabarimala temple being devotees of Lord Ayyappa are addressed as Ayyappans and, therefore, the third condition for a religious denomination stands satisfied, is unacceptable. There is no identified group called Ayyappans. Every Hindu devotee can go to the temple. We have also been apprised that there are other temples for Lord Ayyappa and there is no such prohibition
• Coming to the first and the most important condition for a religious denomination, i.e., the collection of individuals ought to have a system of beliefs or doctrines which they regard as conducive to their spiritual well-being, there is nothing on record to show that the devotees of Lord Ayyappa have any common religious tenets peculiar to themselves, which they regard as conducive to their spiritual well-being, other than those which are common to the Hindu religion. Therefore, the devotees of Lord Ayyappa are just Hindus and do not constitute a separate religious denomination
• Having stated that the devotees of Lord Ayyappa do not constitute a religious denomination within the meaning of Article 26 and that Sabarimala Temple is a public temple by virtue of the fact that Section 15 of the 1950 Act vests all powers of direction, control and supervision over it in the Travancore Devaswom Board which, in our foregoing analysis, has been unveiled as „other authority‟ within the meaning of Article 12, resultantly fundamental rights including those guaranteed under Article 25(1) are enforceable against the Travancore Devaswom Board and other incorporated Devaswoms including the Sabarimala Temple.
• Whether exclusionary practice is an essential practice as per Hindu religion?
• it has to be determined whether the practice of exclusion of women of the age group of 10 to 50 years is equivalent to a doctrine of Hindu religion or a practice that could be regarded as an essential part of the Hindu religion and whether the nature of Hindu religion would be altered without the said exclusionary practice. The answer to these questions, in our considered opinion, is in the firm negative. In the absence of any scriptural or textual evidence, we cannot accord to the exclusionary practice followed at the Sabarimala temple the status of an essential practice of Hindu religion.
• Nobody can say that essential part or practice of one's religion has changed from a particular date or by an event. Such alterable parts or practices are definitely not the 'core' of religion where the belief is based and religion is founded upon. It could only be treated as mere embellishments to the non-essential part or practices.There has to be unhindered continuity in a practice for it to attain the status of essential practice. It is further discernible from the judgment of the High Court in S. Mahendran (supra) that the Devaswom Board had accepted before the High Court that female worshippers of the age group of 10 to 50 years used to visit the temple and conduced poojas in every month for five days for the first rice feeding ceremony of their children. The Devaswom Board also took a stand before the High Court that restriction of entry for women was only during Mandalam, Makaeavilakku and Vishnu days. Prior to the passing of the Notification in 1950, women of all age groups used to visit the Sabarimala temple for the first rice feeding ceremony of their children.Therefore, there seems to be no continuity in the exclusionary practice followed at the Sabarimala temple and in view of this, it cannot be treated as an essential practice.
• Rule 3(b) of the Kerala Hindu Places of Public Worship (Authorization of Entry) Rules, 1965 is ultra vires Sections 3 and 4 of the 1965 Act, for the reason that it protects „custom and usage‟ which may prohibit entry when Section 3 expressly overrides custom and usage.The language of both the provisions, that is, Section 3 and the proviso to Section 4(1) of the 1965 Act, clearly indicates that custom and usage must make space to the rights of all sections and classes of Hindus to offer prayers at places of public worship. Any interpretation to the contrary would annihilate the purpose of the 1965 Act and the fundamental right to practise religion guaranteed under Article 25(1). It is clear as crystal that the provisions of the 1965 Act are liberal in nature so as to allow entry to all sections and classes of Hindus including Scheduled Castes and Scheduled Tribes. But framing of Rule 3(b) of the 1965 Rules under the garb of Section 4(1) would violate the very purpose of the 1965 Act. The language of both the provisions, that is, Section 3 and the proviso to Section 4(1) of the 1965 Act clearly indicate that custom and usage must make space to the rights of all sections and classes of Hindus to offer prayers at places of public worship. Any interpretation to the contrary would annihilate the purpose of the 1965 Act and incrementally impair the fundamental right to practise religion guaranteed under Article 25(1). Therefore, we hold that Rule 3(b) of the 1965 Rules is ultra vires the 1965 Act

The Vratham or penance entails: (i) Abstaining from physical relations with a spouse; (ii) Abstention from intoxicating drinks, smoking and tamasic food; (iii) Living in isolation from the rest of the family; (iv) Refraining from interacting with women in daily life including those in the family; (v) Cooking one’s own food; (vi) Maintaining hygiene including bathing twice a day before prayers; (vii) Wearing a black mundu and upper garments; (viii) Partaking of one meal a day; and (ix) Walking barefoot. 

I also want to give a few points from the 1991 Judgement S. Mahendran vs The Secretary, Travancore ... on 5 April, 1991

• A petition was sent by one S. Mahan-daran, K. P. S. Bhavan, Perunnai, Changana-cherry, to one of us (Paripoornan, J.) which was converted into an original petition and treated as public interest litigation. He complained of young woman trekking Sabari hills (Sabarimala) and offering prayers at the Sabarimala Shrina. That is contrary to the customs and usages followed in the temple, according to him. Special treatment is alleged to have been given to wives of V.I.Ps. He pointed out a specific instance of the first rice-feeding ceremony of the grand-daughter of the former Devaswom Commissioner Smt. Chandrika conducted at Sabarimala temple in the presence of her daughter, the mother of the child, and other relatives including women a photograph which appeared in the Janmaboomi daily of 19-8-1990 was also enclosed along with the complaint petition. He sought suitable action to be taken against the persons concerned

• Trvancore Devasom Board said - In olden days worshippers visit the temple only after observing penance for 41 days. Since pilgrims to Sabarimala temple ought to undergo 'Vrathams' or penance for 41 days, usually ladies between the age of 10 and 50 will not be physically capable of observing vratham for 41 days on physiological grounds. The religious practices and customs followed earlier had changed during the last 40 years particularly from 1950, the year in which the renovation of the temple took place after the "fire disaster". Even while the old customs prevailed, women used to visit the temple though very rarely. The Maharaja of Travancore accompanied by the Maharani and the Divan had visited the lemple in 1115 M.E. There was thus no prohibition for women to enter the Sabarimala temple in olden days, but women in large number were not visiting the temple. That was not because of any prohibition imposed by Hindu religion but because of other non-religious factors. In recent years, many worshippers had gone to the temple with lady worshippers within the age group 10 to 50 for the first rice-feeding ceremony of their children (Chottoonu). The Board used to issue receipts on such occasions on payment of the prescribed charges.For the last 20 years woman irrespective of their age were allowed to visit the lemple when it opens for monthly poojas. They were not permitted to enter the temple during Mandalam, Makaravilakku. and Vishu seasons. The rule that during these seasons no woman who is aged more than 10 and less than 50 shall enter the temple is scrupulously followed. 
• The second respondent, former Deva-swom Commissioner Smt. S. Chandrika in her counter-affidavit said that the restriction regarding the entry of women in the age group 10 to 50 is there only during Mandalam, Makaravilakku and Vishu. As per the stipulations made by the Devaswom Board there is no restriction during the remaining period. When monthly poojas are conducted, women of all age groups used to visit Sabarimala. On the 1st of Chingam 1166 the first rice-feeding ceremony of other children were also conducted at the temple. No V.I.P. treatment was given to her grandchild on that day. The same facility was afforded to others also. Her daughter got married on 13-7-1984 and was not begetting a child for a considerably long time. She took a vow that the first rice-feeding ceremony would be performed at Sabarimala in case she begets a child. Hence the reason why the first rice-feeding ceremony of the child delivered by her was performed at that temple. The entry of young ladies in the temple during monthly poojas is not against the customs and practices followed in the temple.

• The present Thanthri Sri Neelakandaru is doing thanthram in Sabarimala temple for the past 50 years. As C.W. 6 he stated that he was intimately connected with that temple even before the reinstallation of the deity in 1950. According to him, woman belonging to the age group of 10 to 50 were prohibited from entering the temple even before 1950.
• The Secretary of the Ayyappa Seva Sangham Sri K.P.S. Nair deposed that he had conducted pilgrimage to Sabarimala every year for the past 60 years. The Sangham has passed a resolution that women above 10 and below 50 years of age should not enter the Sabarimala temple. He stated that he had , been young women in Sabarimala only during the past 10 to 15 years. The Sangham had orally complained to the authorities about this but to no avail. He has spoken about an instance which he had witnessed about five years back when a young woman was seen attempting to ascend the sacred steps. One of the volunteers of the Sangham brought to the notice of the Circle Inspector on duty. The witness stated that the Circle Inspector restrained the volunteer and the woman ascended the steps and entered the temple. He further stated that tourists from other States go to Sabarimala in large numbers, of whom there were young women also. Even newly married couple were seen among those tourists. The witness stated that the sanctity and purity of the surroundings are evaded on account of this.
• A copy of the reply sent by Sri Maheshvararu, Thanthri of the temple, to Sri Kummanam Rajasekharan, State Secretary of Hindu Munnani, was produced by C. W. 5. This letter (Ext. C2) was sent in reply to a letter sent by Sri Rajasekharan informing Sri Maheswararu about dance performance by young woman and marriage ceremonies conducted at the temple and shooting of films there. Sri Maheswararu was the Thanthri of the temple at the time of devaprasnam in 1985. He had expressed his opinion in the reply. He informed Sri Rajasekharan that permitting women between the age group 12 to 50 will be contrary to the customs of the temple. It is also mentioned that it was revealed so in all the Devaprasnama conducted at Sabarimala by well known astrologers. There cannot thus be two opinion about the practice and usage followed in not permitting women aged more than 10 and below 50 worship at Sabarimala temple.
• Is there any basis for this restriction? Is it only a blind belief handed down from generation to generation without any rationale behind that restriction? Pilgrims are expected to observe penance. Purity in thought, word and deed is insisted during the period of penance (Vratham). A pilgrim starts trekking the Sabarimala only after completing the penance for a period of 41 days. Women of the age group 10 to 50 will not be in a position to observe Vratham continuously for a period of 41 days due to physiological reasons. These appear to be the main reasons why females of a particular age group were not permitted to go on a pilgrimage to Sabarimala.
• There is a vital reason for imposing this restriction on young women. It appears to be more fundamental. The Thanthri of the temple as well as some other witnesses have stated that the deity at Sabarimala is in the form of a Naisthik Brahmachari. Since the deity is in the form of a Naisthik Brahmachari, it is therefore believed that young women should not offer worship in the temple so that even the slightest deviation from celibacy and austerity observed by the deity is not caused by the presence of such women.
• The Devaswom Board and the 2nd respondent Smt. Chandrika, former Devaswom Board Commissioner, have a contention that the restriction of entry is only during the Mandalam, Maharavilakku and Vishu days. The temple will be opened in every month for five days and poojas are conducted on those days. According to the Board persons who go to the temple during these days are not expected to observe the penance for any particular period. Ayyappa devotees used to visit the temple on these days irrespective of their age, according to the Board, and this practice has been in vogue for the past 40 years. No serious complaint was received by the Board from men of religion against permitting women during these days. The Thanthri also has not objected to this practice, according to the Board. Many female worshippers of the age group of 10 to 50 used to go to the temple during these days for the first rice-feeding ceremony of their children. Receipts are issued by the Board on payment of the prescribed charges and the rice-feeding ceremony is being conducted at the temple. The Board has therefore taken a stand that the restriction is prevalent only during Mandalam, Makaravilakku and Vishu days, when there will be rush of pilgrims. Neither the Thanthri nor any of the other witnesses have spoken about the practice of permitting women during other days either for conducting the first rice-feeding ceremony of their children or to offer worship at the temple. The restriction imposed has been in vogue for a continuously long period for proper reasons. 

Kerala Floods and Idukki Dam - Data based Analysis

Noting down my quick analysis on what really happened during the 2018 Kerala floods.....

Immediately after the 2018 floods in Kerala, there were lot of arguments and discussions on what triggered the calamity and whether the government and the associated machinery could have done anything to avoid/ minimize the same. The major questions that were discussed are the following:

• Whether opening of the dams triggered the floods?
• Whether the dams were opened at the right time?

The following analysis is my attempt (based on data i could gather) to understand what really happened....

Data used : http://sldckerala.com - Daily water levels, rainfall, inflow and spill details of Idukki dam from July1st - August 28th 2018. I was not able to get the daily rainfall forecast data, the best approximation i could get was the weekly rainfall departure data (departure from expected/normal). I also tried to create a time series forecast of rainfall from 9th - 18th Aug based on data from 1st July through 8th August.

During the first week of July, the average rainfall received in Idukki was around 10mm/day and the water level in the dam was increasing at a very gradual rate of around 2.5feet/week (around 2353 feet). The second and third weeks of July saw heavy rainfall with an average of around 75mm; Idukki received highest rainfall in 17 years on July 15th (156mm). There was a sudden spike in the rate of water level increase in the dam. By the end of 3rd week, water level had touched 2384 feet; almost 2feet/day increase!! The last week of July again saw average rainfall with 1-2 days of sporadic high rainfall (average 48cm). Water level reached 2395 feet in the last week of July (1 feet/day increase) raising  blue alert.....

[2395 - Blue alert, 2397 - Orange Alert , 2399 - Red alert]

This was the first time the question popped up - Should we open the dam???
At the current rate, the water level will reach the red alert level within 4-5 days if the rainfall sustains. The rainfall forecast was normal (around 15-20mm). Based on the available data, it was decided not to open the dam.

The first week of August saw very low rainfall at an average 8mm/day. Water level rose only by 1 feet in the whole week thus making it 2396 feet. The decision not to open the dam got some thumbs-up. But the question was still lingering, should we or should we not??

Things changed on 8th August. Idukki received very heavy rainfall of 130mm making the water level 2398 feet!! The question again popped up - Should we open the dam???

Let us evaluate the available data points on 8th August basis which a decision was to be made....

• The current water level is 2398 feet; just 5 feet below the FRL of 2403 feet. Maximum Water level (MWL) of the dam is 2408 feet
• With heavy rainfall, water level increases at the rate of 1-2 feet/day even after full generation utilization
• There was moderate-heavy rainfall forecast for the coming week
• 1 MCM of water is equivalent to roughly 1.47 MU of power - So for every 1 MCM water lost there is an associated monetary loss
• One more day of heavy rainfall can make the water level above 2401 which is above the red alert point and way close to FRL

And it was decided to open one of the shutters of the dam on 8th August. As feared, 9th August saw very heavy rainfall of around 120mm making the water level rise to 2401 feet. If we hadn't opened on 8th August, situation would have been worse based on the 9th rainfall.

Now let us see how the spill was managed for the next 5 days to bring the water levels down. The below graph shows the same. Spill is the amount of water let out of the shutters and the inflow is the amount of water coming into the dam... From 10th Aug - 13th Aug, water was released from the dam at a controlled manner starting at 52mcm peaking to 64.8mcm on 12th Aug and then coming down to 50mcm on 13th Aug. The rainfall was medium - heavy as expected with an average of 70mm/day. By 13th Aug, the water level came down to 2396.8 feet, much below the red alert level. If this trend had continued, it would have been even decided to stop the spillage by 14th or 15th August!!

If you see the amount of spillage on 11th - 13th August, it is more than the amount of water inflow. That means the dam was releasing more water than what it was receiving. This is an important metric to consider while deciding whether the water release from dam caused flooding. During these days, there was minor floods along the Periyar stretch; but still the situation was under control.

Things took a completely different turn on 14th August. Idukki received a rainfall of 235mm; highest ever; way above any predictions ever made.... Followed by 15th August - 295mm!! The inflow into the dam quadrupled... Adding to this, Mullaperiyar dam also opened on 15th August increasing the inflow to Idukki...

Now let us look at the spill rates vs inflow rate during 14th and 15th Aug. The spill rate is never above the inflow rate for any of these dates. Meaning, the dam never threw out additional water than what it was receiving during these days.

The data given above shows how the spill was managed. The water levels touched 2402 on 18th Aug, but still the spill was in a very controlled manner; making sure it is never above the inflow.

Another interesting observation is that the dam water level on 29th Aug is 2396.6 which is the same level as on 13th Aug!!

And today, 7th Sep, the water level is 2391 feet.. same as on July 26th :) Should we or should we not?????????????????

So to conclude, let me give MY answers to the questions posed initially

• Whether opening of Idukki dam triggered the floods in Periyar? - Not really.. The spill from the dam contributed to the flood that happened from 11th - 13th Aug because the spill was more than the inflow. The dam was throwing out more water. But on 14th and 15th, when the major flooding happened, the spill was always less than the inflow. So the dam hasn't added any 'additional' water outflow to cause flooding. But one thing to note is that the dam also didn't do any flood-control which is one of the use-case of a dam. It threw out whatever water inflow it was getting on 14th - 18th Aug. If it had stored this water instead of spilling it, it would have performed the flood control role.... But Idukki dam was built for power generation and irrigation as the main purpose; flood control is an add-on. The dams in Periyar basin store only about 25% of the river's annual flow with just Idukki and Idamalayar storing 21%.   
• Whether the dams were opened at the right time? - In retrospect - NO; In Real time decision making - YES!                                                                                                       "Everything is unprecedented until it happens for the first time" "No one ever trained for an incident like that; no one warned us" - Courtesy Sully Movie                              

The End

Girl in the new city...........

I have been thinking of writing this down for quite sometime, but didn't get the time and patience until now. This is more of a travelogue than a note, but since I don’t have the habit of writing a blog or anything, I just thought I will write it down here.

My first trip to the US, that too all alone, was on March 18th, 2014. That was the first time I had been to the T2 Terminal of Mumbai and it was fantastic. Dejoy came to see me off and I almost cried, because I so badly wanted him to be there with me for the trip. My flight was via Amsterdam (Schiphol airport) where I had a couple of hour’s transit time. So I thought I will just explore the terminal and ended up in a liquor store. Then suddenly i remembered about a coffee liquor I had had at a friend's place and I always wanted to buy the same. I went looking for that and finally got it, Bailey's Irish Cream :) I checked the price and decided to check out in the US also before purchasing. You know I am a miser :P The result of this exploration was that I ended up having 2 small bottles of Bailey's in my flight from Amsterdam to Boston :P

At Boston, I was supposed to go in a shared taxi, which my boss had already booked, to my hotel in Reading. I had no clue how to find the taxi since there was no number or anything. All my immigration and customs was kind of cake-walk for me though I was a lot tensed about the same. When I was waiting to collect my baggage, I got a call in my phone from the taxi person asking me to come out through a specific gate. I understood bits and pieces of the same and found out the gate and went out. I saw one person standing outside with my name board. I went up to him and he told me that he is the cab driver. I got a bit confused because what we had booked was a shared van! Realizing my confusion, he told me that there is nobody else to share a cab with and hence I can go in a single cab, all alone.. I was not sure whether I should be happy or sad about this! I am getting a cab all for myself, but then I am going alone to a new place, in a new city!!

I finally reached my hotel, Extended Stay America at Woburn, Main Street. They gave me a room on the second floor with a nice view onto the main road. It was almost 3 PM there and I still felt freezing cold inside the room which made me put my room heater in full power! I was not supposed to sleep off then because of the whole jet lag stuff and hence decided to just walk around before it gets too cold. There was a market basket just opposite my hotel and I decided to go there and may be pick up some dinner also. When I had decided to make this trip, I did get a lot of shopping requests from people asking me to get things from US, mostly electronics stuff. I am not a techie person and hence I had no clue what I wanted from US! But this supermarket trip made me realize that I should be getting a lot of sauces and spreads from there!!!! :D

 

Next day was my first day in office and early morning Gary called me up to let me know that he will be coming to pick me up at around 8 AM. That was the first time I was meeting my manager in person! He is a really nice guy to work with, I should say. I was really happy to see his black sleek Audi :P We reached office and the parking was a bit far from the office building. Gary had told me to wear all my woolen but I didn’t quite understand why he said that until I came out of the car. It was all sunny outside, but the wind was freezing cold. I felt my fingers crumbling! I have no idea how I covered that distance from the parking to the building entrance! I couldn’t feel my legs! Once inside office, it was comfortable though I took some time to become normal! I met with all my teammates, George, Suzanne, Cathy, Lesley.. It was good to finally have faces to all these names! That evening a few of the Indian folks in Reading office called me for dinner. It was a good Indian restaurant, I don’t remember the name though. Abitha picked me up from my hotel and I met with Sreeram, Viral, Santhosh and Ram. Mostly tamilians and I enjoyed the food and the company J

 

Rest of the weekdays went fine. One day I had dinner with Nuvs and Gary at an amazing restaurant at Burlington named ‘Not your Average Joe’s’ . I still savor the taste of the yummy pizza I had from there. I met with Edmund with whom i work most of the time. One day I went out for lunch at Mandarin, Reading with Gary and Suzanne. It was a lunch buffet and I really hogged! One of the days, we left office a little early and I decided to walk to the nearby Woburn mall. It was almost 2 miles from my hotel and the walk towards the mall was nice. Did some shopping also. But the return ended up to a scary business as the roads were empty with no sign of humans around. It was just 7PM in the evening!!

 On Friday, Suzanne was asking me about my weekend plans. I did want to go out on weekend, but didn’t really have a plan. Suzanne was a doll and she sent me all the information she could get hold of about the subway routes, taxi contact, things to do and see at Boston etc. I felt that she badly wanted me to explore Boston! I had also asked a friend of mine and she had given me a list of places to visit. In between, Dejoy planted in me this idea of going to New York over the weekend! I checked out the buses and trains, but it was all full and hence dropped the idea. Abitha asked me to join her for a party she was planning to go to, but I didn’t feel like and hence declined the same. All confused and sad from that fact that I was all alone there, I decided to do nothing and stay back in the hotel! Thanks to Dejoy for pushing me to drop that plan and do something over the weekend. So Friday night, back from office, I started my planning for the next day.

I understood that the only mode of public transport near my hotel is the MBTA bus service and that it’s not there on Sundays!! So I had one day in hand to cover the entire Boston! I understood that timing and planning is the essence!! The first bus is at 7 AM and I have to start then. First I listed down all the places I want to visit in Boston and then I mapped them in Google maps and understood the distance between the places and also the mode of transport available. I must say, Google maps is such a life saver, so is the Google navigation in phone!!! Finally after 3 solid hours of Googling, I came up with a detailed route map and plan! This first step itself made me so proud and happy! I went to bed feeling accomplished.

I woke up at 6 AM since I had to catch the first bus at 7 AM from the stop right opposite my hotel, Bus number 134. This is the only public transport which connects Woburn to Wellington area. The grab and go breakfast in my hotel was really handy. My first destination was Harvard Square and for that my plan was to get to Wellington Subway station and get into the Redline from there. The bus came at around 7.10 and I got into the same. It was pretty empty. Now comes the funny part! There is no ‘conductor’ in the bus and I was totally confused as to how to get the tickets. While getting in itself, the driver did ask me something which I didn’t understand. I ignored him and sat in a seat. Later, after observing some fellow passengers getting in, I understood that the driver himself is the conductor:P I went up to him and told that I want to go to Harvard square and hence want to get down at Wellington. He told me to get down at Medford and take another bus (Bus 96) which directly goes to Harvard square. I paid him 2 dollars. That’s another funny part. Irrespective of where you are getting down, the ticket is of the same rate; 2 dollars!

I reached Harvard square at around 8.45 am. It was really cold outside. I walked through the lanes and reached inside the Harvard campus. It was so divine and peaceful inside. I saw the famous John Harvard statue. That is when I realized the major problem of traveling alone, nobody to click your photo! Finally I asked some tourists who came that side to click one for me. I never thought that would be the only photo in my whole US trip with my face in it!!! L I went through the full campus, saw the engineering block, museums, labs and also classrooms. It was a pretty long walk and I was hungry! So I picked up a sandwich from one of the few cafes which were open at that time and walked to Harvard station in the Red Line. I was also planning to buy Charlie card from there which can be used in the bus and trains instead of giving money every time; we can load the card from any station and use. Suzanne told me about this J

So fully loaded, I took the Redline from Harvard to Park Street and from there green line to Copley. After getting down at Copley, I walked towards Prudential center. Thanks to Google maps for this information and navigation. While I was walking towards Prudential, I noticed a lot of people dressed up in different characters walking alongside. It was really amusing and I understood that there is some costume party happening at the exhibition center over there. I had a tough time figuring out the entrance to the Prudential center because of the crowd over there. Inside the mall, I realized that my phone is getting drained very fast because of the navigation and I decided to charge my battery. I found out the loo in the mall and went in looking for a plug point. It was more of a dressing room than a washroom, I felt! There were lots of girls and ladies coming into the room to get ready for the costume party I had mentioned before. It was really fun to see them coming in looking extremely normal, going out looking ravishing and unique J

           

After checking out some shops at Prudential, I decided to go to the Macy’s at Washington Street. Got into the green line at Copley and then got down at ParkStreet and walked to the Macy’s. I always wanted to visit a Macy’s... I wanted to buy something for Dejoy from there, was looking out for some nice shirts or jackets. It was all highly priced and the conversion math gave me a headache!! Finally I identified a session of informal blazers which were on sale. They were all awesome looking and I wanted to pick one for Dejoy. I didn’t knew his size as per the UK scale over there and hence made a video call to him through Skype. I showed him all the options I had and asked him to select. I also sent him pics so that he get a better idea. Finally I selected one and went to the billing counter. There was a long queue over there, still I waited patiently. Finally my turn came.

There was a happy looking middle aged guy at the billing desk. We wished each other and he asked me whether this is my first time in the US! I said “Yeaaahh”. He was so excited to hear the same, he told me in that case I deserve a gift!! I thought he is kidding.. He told me “Say the magic word,, You know it dear” and smiled at me… Then I remembered my officemate Sidd telling me that in the US, the staff at department stores can give you awesome discounts. So I thought, “What magic word should I say!?” I decided to choose the safest one though. All excited, I said “Please, sir” and boom straightaway I got a discount of 20 dollars!! That was a steal……. Dejoy was on Skype with me and he couldn’t believe that I got the blazer at that price. He asked me run before he catches me :P :P I did run :D

The moment I got out of the Macy’s, I realized that it rained while I was inside. The city looked so beautiful and different now. My next destination was Faneuil Hall marketplace located near the waterfront. As per the map, it was walkable distance and weather also supported that option! So I walked from Macy’s towards Faneuil and on the way I saw the busy life of Boston. Cars speeding, people walking in all directions and magnificent buildings. By the time I reached Faneuil Hall, I was hungry! I roamed the place for sometime but quickly decided to have my lunch and then do all the shopping. My friend Sandhya’s friend had suggested a restaurant in that area and I mapped to Durgin Park. When I reached the place, the entrance looked a bit shady. It was not a fine dining or something. The stairs to the restaurant upstairs was really scary for me!

I found an empty table in a quiet corner of the restaurant. I purposely chose that place since I didn’t want any locals to get ‘shocked’ with what I eat and the way I eat!! The waiter boy was quiet surprised to see a girl alone in there. He asked me at least twice or thrice whether I am alone or I am expecting someone. I remembered the scene in Friends where Rachel dines alone and gets judged for the same :P Anyways, when it comes to food, I don’t care whether I am alone or whether anyone is gonna judge me! So I decided to hog as usual :D Based on the recommendations I received, I ordered a New England clam chowder and Lobster roll. Yummy it was, I must say….

    

                                                  

Happily fed, I moved out of the restaurant. Did some random shopping in the South Market area, saw the famous Freedom Trail.

   

My next target was North End, Boston which was a residential area with a lot of Italian population. Suzanne had told me that I must visit the same for 2 reasons. One, awesome architecture and second, amazing pastry shops.

           

While walking through the streets at North End, I came across a beautiful church also. Structurally it was very different from the kind of churches I had seen and was also very serene inside.

   

Finally I reached my dessert destination, the Mike’s Pastry J I had no issue in finding out the place as I could see the crowd from half a mile away! God, the place was shit crowded which makes one doubt whether all of them are visiting Boston for the first time like me! There were long queues (Yes! Multiple queues!!!) and I was not even able to see what is happening at the counter!

I realized that this endeavor of mine is going to be really time consuming but I decided I will wait patiently. At the end of the day, it’s for foooooooooood J

Finally my turn came and I didn’t even get a good chance to understand the menu completely because people behind were rushing me. So I ordered the most popular thing they offer, Cannoli.. Also ordered a lot of cupcakes, ricotta pie and a few pastries. I didn’t get time to think whether I am going to eat all that, I just ordered blindly. I got my boxes and I struggled my way out happy and content J

                                                          

That was my last destination for my one day trip. Since I was using public transport, time was very critical as the last bus to Woburn left at around 5.30 PM from Wellington Station Bus Bay. I already lost significant time at the pastry store. Hence I rushed to the metro line. I took the Orange line from Haymarket to Wellington station. In the train, there was an announcement that, since there was some construction going on in the rail lines, the last station would be Sullivan square! Hmm, that’s trouble. That means I am gonna lose more time now. So I got down at Sullivan square. There was an MBTA bus arranged which took all passengers to Wellington station. There was again long queue for the bus and I got into the second trip that left. Finally I reached the Wellington bus station and asked around for the 134 bus route. They pointed me to one bus stop and said the last bus will come in 15 minutes. By then, it was around 6.00 and it was getting very cold. I started getting a little scared too! When you are alone, scared, cold and waiting, time seems to run super slow. It felt like I have been waiting for years for my 134!! Finally it came! Everybody got down as it was the last stop for the inbound journey and now the bus will return after a few minutes. I got inside, there were only a couple of people who were there with me inside. After almost 10 minutes, the driver took the bus and I was suddenly a lot calm. I mapped to my hotel in my phone and was making sure that we were on the right route!! Only a few got into the bus during the journey.

By the time we reached half way through the distance, I noticed that only two people were left in the bus now. Me and another female. That was odd given the fact that we are yet to cover half the distance. In another ten minutes, the driver stopped at a bus stop and turned back and told us something. I didn’t understand it at all and I assumed that he was talking to the other female. I looked at her and she also looked confused. The driver again said something and this time I almost understood. He said that that was the last stop of the bus!!!

Ok, now I am really scared. How can this be the last stop!! I asked him the same. He said this is some ‘shorter version’ of 134 and it ends at that point. I asked whether there is any other bus that will come, he said he has no idea. The bus drivers over there can be people who do this for part-time and hence might not be aware of any specifics. We got down and he took a u-Turn and left!!

It was almost 7PM in the evening and I was standing clueless on the footpath in an unknown place with an unknown woman! 7PM in Mumbai is nothing, people start to live at that time only, but 7PM in a countryside in the US was totally different. I couldn’t find a single human being around apart from the 2 of us. That lady looked equally scared and she was trying to make some calls. I didn’t bother to do that since I knew everyone who care about me would be sleeping peacefully in India at that time….. To add to the already messed up scene, I noticed that we are standing opposite a cemetery with lots of trees and it felt like a Hollywood horror movie setting!!

I was thinking about all the different options I have. I can try to get a cab, but there was no Uber or anything in that area. My hotel folks had given me the contact details of a few cab agencies and thought I will call them. Another option was to call Gary or Suzanne but I quickly decided that that would be my last sort. Then it struck me that before doing any of this, I should confirm whether there is any bus which is gonna come now. I decided to ask the lady. She told me that she has no idea and she is trying to get a cab. I thought I will go with her, if she is ok with that… But she told me she has been trying for some time and no cab is ready to come all the way there to pick her up.

So we decided that she will try for the cab option and I will see whether any bus is there. I had no clue how though. My only travel guide throughout the entire day was Google maps and it was not showing any feasible bus option. Suddenly I remembered that Dejoy had installed a lot of Boston apps on my phone before the day of my travel. I had no idea what all apps he had put, but remembered him telling me that there are apps with train timings, bus timings etc. So I frantically looked through the apps in my phone and came across an MBTA app!!!!! I opened the same and Voilaaaa… That’s exactly what I was looking for. It had a map view of all the buses around you along with the number (like Uber). The first thing I saw was #134 and I saw one bus on the map coming towards us. It was sooooo happy. I told the other lady that there is a bus coming and we both waited eagerly for the same. We waited for like 10 minutes and there it was… 134 Bus….. But… in the opposite direction…… In the excitement in finding out the nearest bus, I didn’t check whether it was inbound or outbound. We wanted an outbound one whereas the one which I saw on the map was inbound!!! The lady gave me a blank smile!

Anyways the fact that there was an inbound bus at that time gave me hope. I kept checking the app every second irrespective of the fact that my battery is getting drained at exponential rate. Finally I found one J There was an outbound 134 coming in our direction. Hurraaayyyyy…… I told the lady and we both started looking at the app screen without even blinking our eyes as if if we blink, the bus is going to vanish!! We tracked the bus until it reached us. Happy and relieved, we both got into the bus…………….. I reached the hotel at around 8.30 PM and I was soooooo happy. I felt like I accomplished something and felt like Ross who found a new meaning for life after the ‘near death’ car backfire!! :P I wanted to tell the whole story to Dejoy but I knew he will be sleeping….. I had an amazing dinner from the Sichuan Garden restaurant nearby with the awesome Mike’s pastries as dessert.

I had no plans for the next day as it was Sunday and there is no 134! So basically I am stuck. Then in the morning, I got a call from Suzanne and she said she has to drop her kids for some coaching and hence will be coming this way and can pick me up for some shopping. She said she wants to go to TJ Maxx and I was more than happy to join her. So we went to TJ Maxx, then to Target and later to Lindt Chocolate store. I picked up candies for Mayu and chocolates for my office friends. I enjoyed the ‘Shopping Day’ too. In the evening I went to the AC Moore craft store across my hotel and did some shopping for both my moms…

The next day when I reached office, everyone was asking me about my Boston trip as Suzanne had told all of them. They were soo surprised that I covered all that in one day! Of course the bus story remains hidden………..